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2024-12-13 13:35:57

December 10th Morning Post: High-level enlargement, homework came out today!First of all, the policy combination boxing includes not only monetary policy, but also fiscal policy. Some brokers have predicted that deficit ratio will increase from 3% to 4%. Of course, this needs to be verified later. It's just that fiscal stimulus is a moderate rhythm of releasing water, not to mention that it hasn't been introduced yet, at least don't expect this batch of funds to flow into A shares quickly.Finally, the statement of the property market still reiterates "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", and there may not be much unexpected things coming out. This is to remind everyone. There is a high probability that the interest rate will continue to be lowered, so the RRR cut should be on the way.


Hang Seng Index futures closed early, so the feedback was not the actual situation. The A50 futures index exploded by more than 4 points at the end of the session, and the night market rose by 0.84%, so today it depends entirely on the opening of A shares. If it exceeds 3,500 points, the benefits will be directly digested. Once the funds can't keep up, it should be a high probability event to open higher and go lower.Hong Kong stocks are mainly led by brokerage insurance, interior housing, consumption, technology and Internet giants. Today, under the A-share mapping, the above direction deserves special attention. However, I would like to remind you that after reading yesterday's resumption of trading, many small tickets and low-priced stocks that have been sizzled recently have shown signs of decline, so the way to break the position is to go on rallies, and the style switch behind should be a high probability event.4. For the first time, the extraordinary countercyclical adjustment was put forward, and it was clearly named for the first time to stabilize the stock market and the property market. There are several points that we should treat dialectically:


To put it simply, if you open higher and go higher today, there may be another stage high point in the short term, which may not be too friendly for the promotion of the market outlook. At least before the daily deviation is digested, it is a hidden dark mine, and then the fluctuation will be relatively large.In response, you can hold shares, but it is not suitable for chasing up. Remember! Never!In another case, if it opens higher and goes lower today, and the closing price does not exceed 3470.66 points, then the short-term estimate will continue to step back and digest. On the contrary, this situation is a good thing. We only need to deal with it with high throwing and low sucking, and then we will have a real acceleration cycle after we gain momentum again.

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